Predicting the future

As Hurricane Gustav roars ashore on the Gulf Coast, I ponder what the headlines will be in the near future. Does Louisiana manage the crisis effectively? Does Mayor Nagin get a do-over and did he really "learn" his lessons? Does the Bush administration get credit for 3 years of hard work with the States and Governors pushing a cajoling them to develop capacity to handle their own disasters? How does the media cast FEMA's performance?

First a refresher for this nation of lawyers...The Stafford Act (yes, a law) governs how the federal government responds to disasters. First and foremost, disaster response is a local responsibility. That means that counties, cities, and States are responsible to prepare for and handle domestic emergencies of all types. The Federal government can and will, assist the States upon the direct request of the Governor. Any expectation that George W and his boys will come galloping into town to save the day at a moments notice is foolhardy. First, its counter to the law, and second, the Federal government does nothing fast. If you want to sit on the roof of your flooded house and wait for the Federal government to save you, better pack a few lunches. Watch out for Obama and McCain telling you that they will provide the perfect government response every time. You can't afford that type of response.

Where was the huge Federal response in Iowa this summer? Oh, wait, the Iowans hitched up their drawers and handled it themselves. They shed some tears, but the shouldered the burden and rebuilt their lives in a matter of months. Where is the prolonged federal response? It wasn't needed because they got it done themselves.

So enough ranting. Hear are my predictions:
1. Bush will get none of the credit, only the blame. Its what comes with being the President. He can handle it.
2. The media, in all of its forms, will do its best to highlight the downside of Gustav. it will be all about portraying controversy, contradiction and conflict. Only when all of these stories have panned out will you see the puff pieces glossing over the successes. Remember, media is BIG business and if it bleeds it leads. Sorry George, sorry FEMA.
3. Mayor Nagin did learn his lesson and he will make the right calls and work effectively with Gov Jindal to deal with this crisis.
4. FEMA won't get any credit despite the hard work of the last three years. FEMA isn't the same organization it was pre-Katrina. The new organization is filled with the same patriots who shoulder a pack and carry a rifle in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are working hard in the most complex environment possible and they do a damn fine job.

Who wants to give me odds on these predictions? Only time will tell what really happens.

AJ