October 1 will be a defining moment for the Iraqi government. Oct 1 marks the day when control of the Sunni Awakening Councils pass from United States control to the government of Iraq. The Awakening Councils, former Sunni insurgents who decided to cooperate with the U.S. and fight Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQIM), have been a valuable member in the fight to save Iraq from chaos. After the sectarian fighting erupted, the Sunni's were getting soundly drubbed by the Shiite militias. Realizing that their survival was at stake, the Sunni's decided to become part of the solution and seek sanction with the U.S. The U.S. recognized the importance of this Sunni gesture and put the Awakening Councils onthe U.S. payroll.
So why is Oct 1 such a big deal? If the Iraqi government, which is dominated by Shiites, disbands the Sunni councils then the Sunnis may not have any other choice other than to become insurgents again. One of the most important steps in a counterinsurgency is reconciliation, bringing together opposing sides of the fighting and peacefully resolving the differences. If the Iraqi government maintains the Awakening Councils and absorbs them as part of the Iraqi forces then there is an enormous chance that Iraq can defeat AQIM and survive as a country. The wild card is whether the Iraqi government will make a decision to give their country a chance at peace and prosperity or descend into more sectarian violence. I can't honestly say what will happen. We'll just have to watch it happen this fall. I've got my fingers crossed, how about you?
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Life is Hard When You Are Stupid
John Wayne was once quoted as saying "Life is hard. Life is even harder when you are stupid." Those words ring true for the people of Galveston Island, TX who made a concious decision to stay home during hurricane Ike despite a very bold warning by the National Weather Service and a mandatory evacuation order.
The National Weather Service made headlines by warning residents that to stay on the Texas coast was to court death. Ike was no joke and was bringing the power of Mother Nature was bringing a Texas-sized hurricane. Despite the warnings, thousands, even tens of thousands of people chose to stay in the barrier island communities to ride out the hurricane.
Barrier islands are made of sand. Sand does not stand fast in the face of water. Just ask the Israelis what water did to their big sand berm in the 1973 war. Wood frame buildings don't stand a chance against 10-20 foot waves. If you've ever been to the beach and played in the surf think back to the power that a 4-5 foot wave brings as it crashes on the beach. Those are 'gentle' waves. Waves that come ashore during a hurricane, driven by over 100 mph winds is one of the most powerful forces on the planet. By one account, a house on 16 ft pilings (yes, 16 ft above the ground) was lifted from its pilings by the waves of hurricane Ike.
Today we are seeing the 'survival' stories of the stupid who chose to stay behind despite all of the warnings. These people are being rescued at considerable expense (you are paying for their stupidity) and they are putting rescuers at risk to the hazards of Galveston Island. You'll also see stories of the hazardous slurry of chemicals and waste that are polluting GI. Rescuers have to repeatedly brave these dangerous conditions to bring out the 'victims.'
There really is no excuse not to evacuate. The State of Texas provided transportation out of the danger area and shelters for those who had no other place to go.
So when you read those stories about the horrors faced by the ass clowns who stayed behind remember that you are paying for their stupidity and the rescuers are putting their lives on the line for their stupidity. In hindsight, staying to ride out the storm is a selfish decision.
The National Weather Service made headlines by warning residents that to stay on the Texas coast was to court death. Ike was no joke and was bringing the power of Mother Nature was bringing a Texas-sized hurricane. Despite the warnings, thousands, even tens of thousands of people chose to stay in the barrier island communities to ride out the hurricane.
Barrier islands are made of sand. Sand does not stand fast in the face of water. Just ask the Israelis what water did to their big sand berm in the 1973 war. Wood frame buildings don't stand a chance against 10-20 foot waves. If you've ever been to the beach and played in the surf think back to the power that a 4-5 foot wave brings as it crashes on the beach. Those are 'gentle' waves. Waves that come ashore during a hurricane, driven by over 100 mph winds is one of the most powerful forces on the planet. By one account, a house on 16 ft pilings (yes, 16 ft above the ground) was lifted from its pilings by the waves of hurricane Ike.
Today we are seeing the 'survival' stories of the stupid who chose to stay behind despite all of the warnings. These people are being rescued at considerable expense (you are paying for their stupidity) and they are putting rescuers at risk to the hazards of Galveston Island. You'll also see stories of the hazardous slurry of chemicals and waste that are polluting GI. Rescuers have to repeatedly brave these dangerous conditions to bring out the 'victims.'
There really is no excuse not to evacuate. The State of Texas provided transportation out of the danger area and shelters for those who had no other place to go.
So when you read those stories about the horrors faced by the ass clowns who stayed behind remember that you are paying for their stupidity and the rescuers are putting their lives on the line for their stupidity. In hindsight, staying to ride out the storm is a selfish decision.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
True Colors Shine Through
So Oprah refuses to have Gov Palin as a guest on her show. Oprah's reasoning is that she decided not to use her show to support political candidates since she declared her support for Obama. So if you have one of the largest daytime talk shows with an enormous viewing audience and you choose not to invite a political candidate on to discuss all sides of the issues, isn't that the same as using your show to support a candidate? Isn't a lie of ommision still a lie? I'd like to see Oprah invite Gov Palin on and discuss the issues. Maybe Oprah doesn't want her viewing audience to see her true colors. Is Oprah afraid that the public won't like what they hear and see? This may be the first crack in the 'O' empire. I find this position very interesting given that Oprah has quite a history of showcasing powerful women. Why, I wonder, would she not want to showcase 'this' powerful woman?
To me, the real statement is that Gov Palin represents a real and dangerous threat to the Democratic candidates. Opportunities for Gov Palin to speak in big venues with media coverage will only benefit the the McCain-Palin ticket. Her wholesome, down-home values rings true with most of America.
Its easy to forget that all of the country is not NY or LA. This is a hug country with most of the folks living in middle America. I think the thin veneer on Obama's message of change has rubbed off and the country is seeing a VP candidate who is is 14K solid gold . Stay tuned. This is going to be a good show.
To me, the real statement is that Gov Palin represents a real and dangerous threat to the Democratic candidates. Opportunities for Gov Palin to speak in big venues with media coverage will only benefit the the McCain-Palin ticket. Her wholesome, down-home values rings true with most of America.
Its easy to forget that all of the country is not NY or LA. This is a hug country with most of the folks living in middle America. I think the thin veneer on Obama's message of change has rubbed off and the country is seeing a VP candidate who is is 14K solid gold . Stay tuned. This is going to be a good show.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Predicting the future
As Hurricane Gustav roars ashore on the Gulf Coast, I ponder what the headlines will be in the near future. Does Louisiana manage the crisis effectively? Does Mayor Nagin get a do-over and did he really "learn" his lessons? Does the Bush administration get credit for 3 years of hard work with the States and Governors pushing a cajoling them to develop capacity to handle their own disasters? How does the media cast FEMA's performance?
First a refresher for this nation of lawyers...The Stafford Act (yes, a law) governs how the federal government responds to disasters. First and foremost, disaster response is a local responsibility. That means that counties, cities, and States are responsible to prepare for and handle domestic emergencies of all types. The Federal government can and will, assist the States upon the direct request of the Governor. Any expectation that George W and his boys will come galloping into town to save the day at a moments notice is foolhardy. First, its counter to the law, and second, the Federal government does nothing fast. If you want to sit on the roof of your flooded house and wait for the Federal government to save you, better pack a few lunches. Watch out for Obama and McCain telling you that they will provide the perfect government response every time. You can't afford that type of response.
Where was the huge Federal response in Iowa this summer? Oh, wait, the Iowans hitched up their drawers and handled it themselves. They shed some tears, but the shouldered the burden and rebuilt their lives in a matter of months. Where is the prolonged federal response? It wasn't needed because they got it done themselves.
So enough ranting. Hear are my predictions:
1. Bush will get none of the credit, only the blame. Its what comes with being the President. He can handle it.
2. The media, in all of its forms, will do its best to highlight the downside of Gustav. it will be all about portraying controversy, contradiction and conflict. Only when all of these stories have panned out will you see the puff pieces glossing over the successes. Remember, media is BIG business and if it bleeds it leads. Sorry George, sorry FEMA.
3. Mayor Nagin did learn his lesson and he will make the right calls and work effectively with Gov Jindal to deal with this crisis.
4. FEMA won't get any credit despite the hard work of the last three years. FEMA isn't the same organization it was pre-Katrina. The new organization is filled with the same patriots who shoulder a pack and carry a rifle in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are working hard in the most complex environment possible and they do a damn fine job.
Who wants to give me odds on these predictions? Only time will tell what really happens.
AJ
First a refresher for this nation of lawyers...The Stafford Act (yes, a law) governs how the federal government responds to disasters. First and foremost, disaster response is a local responsibility. That means that counties, cities, and States are responsible to prepare for and handle domestic emergencies of all types. The Federal government can and will, assist the States upon the direct request of the Governor. Any expectation that George W and his boys will come galloping into town to save the day at a moments notice is foolhardy. First, its counter to the law, and second, the Federal government does nothing fast. If you want to sit on the roof of your flooded house and wait for the Federal government to save you, better pack a few lunches. Watch out for Obama and McCain telling you that they will provide the perfect government response every time. You can't afford that type of response.
Where was the huge Federal response in Iowa this summer? Oh, wait, the Iowans hitched up their drawers and handled it themselves. They shed some tears, but the shouldered the burden and rebuilt their lives in a matter of months. Where is the prolonged federal response? It wasn't needed because they got it done themselves.
So enough ranting. Hear are my predictions:
1. Bush will get none of the credit, only the blame. Its what comes with being the President. He can handle it.
2. The media, in all of its forms, will do its best to highlight the downside of Gustav. it will be all about portraying controversy, contradiction and conflict. Only when all of these stories have panned out will you see the puff pieces glossing over the successes. Remember, media is BIG business and if it bleeds it leads. Sorry George, sorry FEMA.
3. Mayor Nagin did learn his lesson and he will make the right calls and work effectively with Gov Jindal to deal with this crisis.
4. FEMA won't get any credit despite the hard work of the last three years. FEMA isn't the same organization it was pre-Katrina. The new organization is filled with the same patriots who shoulder a pack and carry a rifle in Iraq and Afghanistan. They are working hard in the most complex environment possible and they do a damn fine job.
Who wants to give me odds on these predictions? Only time will tell what really happens.
AJ
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