A Defining Moment

October 1 will be a defining moment for the Iraqi government. Oct 1 marks the day when control of the Sunni Awakening Councils pass from United States control to the government of Iraq. The Awakening Councils, former Sunni insurgents who decided to cooperate with the U.S. and fight Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQIM), have been a valuable member in the fight to save Iraq from chaos. After the sectarian fighting erupted, the Sunni's were getting soundly drubbed by the Shiite militias. Realizing that their survival was at stake, the Sunni's decided to become part of the solution and seek sanction with the U.S. The U.S. recognized the importance of this Sunni gesture and put the Awakening Councils onthe U.S. payroll.

So why is Oct 1 such a big deal? If the Iraqi government, which is dominated by Shiites, disbands the Sunni councils then the Sunnis may not have any other choice other than to become insurgents again. One of the most important steps in a counterinsurgency is reconciliation, bringing together opposing sides of the fighting and peacefully resolving the differences. If the Iraqi government maintains the Awakening Councils and absorbs them as part of the Iraqi forces then there is an enormous chance that Iraq can defeat AQIM and survive as a country. The wild card is whether the Iraqi government will make a decision to give their country a chance at peace and prosperity or descend into more sectarian violence. I can't honestly say what will happen. We'll just have to watch it happen this fall. I've got my fingers crossed, how about you?